According to many experts, the commercial real estate market appears to have finally bottomed out. This is certainly good news for those in the commercial sector, as previous predictions did not expect the market to bottom out for several more months.
One of the main reasons experts believe the commercial market has bottomed is because the Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI), which is produced by Moody's and REAL Indexes and utilizes the data that is collected by Real Capital Analytics on transactions that are $5 million or more, went up by 1% in November and by 4.1% in December of last year. This past January, the index saw another 1% increase.
The Commercial Property Price Index isn't the only measurement that saw this type of activity. In fact, the Transaction Based Index (TBI), which is maintained by MIT and is based on property sales within the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries Property Index saw a 4% increase in the third quarter of 2009. During the fourth quarter, however, it fell by 4.9%, which gave the impression that the bottoming process had begun.
According to Reis Inc, which is a New York research firm, commercial rents appear to support the bottoming theory. The firm says the average net rents within the office sector fell by 0.8% throughout the country during the first quarter of 2010. When comparing year-over-year data, they were down by 7.4%. Reis also found that 23 of the 79 markets being tracked were either stable or showed rising rents. This is far better than the fourth quarter of 2009, at which time 70 out of the 79 markets were experiencing falling rents.
In terms of the residential sector, Reis found that rents increased in 60 out of the 79 markets it tracks during the first quarter of 2010. Furthermore, the vacancy rate remained steady at 8% when compared to the fourth quarter of 2009. On the downside, this figure is the highest Reis has seen since the company started collecting the data in 1980.
With rents moving upward, it is a good sign that the commercial market has already hit bottom and is ready to start moving up as well. It is also a positive sign that the economy is back on track and that it is not doomed to fall backward once the homeowner's tax credit dries up. Although there are no guarantees on what the economy will do from here on out or how the housing and commercial real estate markets will fare, things are certainly looking much brighter in most markets throughout the country.
Jim Olenbush is the owner of an Austin real estate brokerage. He manages a team of experienced Austin Texas Realtors and they specialize in luxury real estate.
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